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Elo fixture difficulty

Fixture Ticker

Compare each team's next three World Cup Fantasy group fixtures by group and matchday. Ratings use a ClubElo-style expected-score formula, then map each matchup into five fantasy difficulty tiers.

Best run

Argentina, Spain, France, England, Germany

What FDR means

FDR stands for Fixture Difficulty Rating. It runs from 1 to 5: 1 is the easiest matchup, 5 is the hardest. Here it is based on an Elo-style team-strength comparison, then translated into fantasy-friendly tiers for each team's next three group games.

TeamGroupWin chanceFixtures

Argentina

Group J

J

87%avg
MD1vs AlgeriaFDR 185%MD2vs AustriaFDR 183%MD3vs JordanFDR 192%

Spain

Group H

H

86%avg
MD1vs Cabo VerdeFDR 192%MD2@ Saudi ArabiaFDR 191%MD3@ UruguayFDR 176%

France

Group I

I

84%avg
MD1vs SenegalFDR 274%MD2vs IraqFDR 191%MD3vs NorwayFDR 186%

England

Group L

L

79%avg
MD1vs CroatiaFDR 266%MD2@ GhanaFDR 187%MD3@ PanamaFDR 184%

Germany

Group E

E

78%avg
MD1vs CuraçaoFDR 188%MD2@ Côte d'IvoireFDR 175%MD3@ EcuadorFDR 269%

Belgium

Group G

G

77%avg
MD1vs EgyptFDR 274%MD2@ IR IranFDR 267%MD3@ New ZealandFDR 191%

Portugal

Group K

K

76%avg
MD1vs Congo DRFDR 184%MD2vs UzbekistanFDR 185%MD3vs ColombiaFDR 360%

Netherlands

Group F

F

75%avg
MD1vs JapanFDR 263%MD2vs SwedenFDR 180%MD3vs TunisiaFDR 183%

Brazil

Group C

C

75%avg
MD1vs MoroccoFDR 351%MD2@ HaitiFDR 191%MD3@ ScotlandFDR 182%

Morocco

Group C

C

74%avg
MD1@ BrazilFDR 349%MD2@ ScotlandFDR 181%MD3@ HaitiFDR 191%

Mexico

Group A

A

71%avg
MD1vs South AfricaFDR 176%MD2vs Korea RepublicFDR 263%MD3vs CzechiaFDR 274%

Switzerland

Group B

B

68%avg
MD1@ QatarFDR 176%MD2@ Bosnia and HerzegovinaFDR 266%MD3@ CanadaFDR 263%

Colombia

Group K

K

66%avg
MD1@ UzbekistanFDR 179%MD2@ Congo DRFDR 178%MD3@ PortugalFDR 440%

USA

Group D

D

65%avg
MD1vs ParaguayFDR 272%MD2vs AustraliaFDR 263%MD3vs TürkiyeFDR 359%

Croatia

Group L

L

62%avg
MD1@ EnglandFDR 534%MD2@ PanamaFDR 273%MD3@ GhanaFDR 177%

Japan

Group F

F

61%avg
MD1@ NetherlandsFDR 437%MD2vs TunisiaFDR 274%MD3vs SwedenFDR 271%

Uruguay

Group H

H

60%avg
MD1@ Saudi ArabiaFDR 177%MD2vs Cabo VerdeFDR 178%MD3vs SpainFDR 524%

IR Iran

Group G

G

58%avg
MD1vs New ZealandFDR 184%MD2vs BelgiumFDR 533%MD3vs EgyptFDR 358%

Senegal

Group I

I

57%avg
MD1@ FranceFDR 526%MD2vs NorwayFDR 268%MD3vs IraqFDR 178%

Ecuador

Group E

E

55%avg
MD1@ Côte d'IvoireFDR 358%MD2vs CuraçaoFDR 177%MD3vs GermanyFDR 531%

Korea Republic

Group A

A

55%avg
MD1vs CzechiaFDR 262%MD2@ MexicoFDR 437%MD3@ South AfricaFDR 265%

Türkiye

Group D

D

53%avg
MD1@ AustraliaFDR 354%MD2@ ParaguayFDR 264%MD3@ USAFDR 441%

Canada

Group B

B

52%avg
MD1vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaFDR 354%MD2vs QatarFDR 265%MD3vs SwitzerlandFDR 437%

Egypt

Group G

G

49%avg
MD1@ BelgiumFDR 526%MD2@ New ZealandFDR 179%MD3@ IR IranFDR 442%

Australia

Group D

D

48%avg
MD1vs TürkiyeFDR 446%MD2@ USAFDR 437%MD3@ ParaguayFDR 360%

Austria

Group J

J

47%avg
MD1vs JordanFDR 271%MD2@ ArgentinaFDR 517%MD3@ AlgeriaFDR 354%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group B

B

47%avg
MD1@ CanadaFDR 446%MD2vs SwitzerlandFDR 534%MD3vs QatarFDR 361%

Côte d'Ivoire

Group E

E

46%avg
MD1vs EcuadorFDR 442%MD2vs GermanyFDR 525%MD3vs CuraçaoFDR 271%

Algeria

Group J

J

43%avg
MD1@ ArgentinaFDR 515%MD2vs JordanFDR 268%MD3vs AustriaFDR 446%

Czechia

Group A

A

39%avg
MD1@ Korea RepublicFDR 438%MD2@ South AfricaFDR 353%MD3@ MexicoFDR 526%

Norway

Group I

I

36%avg
MD1@ IraqFDR 262%MD2@ SenegalFDR 532%MD3@ FranceFDR 514%

Scotland

Group C

C

35%avg
MD1@ HaitiFDR 269%MD2vs MoroccoFDR 519%MD3vs BrazilFDR 518%

South Africa

Group A

A

35%avg
MD1@ MexicoFDR 524%MD2vs CzechiaFDR 447%MD3vs Korea RepublicFDR 535%

Sweden

Group F

F

35%avg
MD1vs TunisiaFDR 355%MD2@ NetherlandsFDR 520%MD3@ JapanFDR 529%

Paraguay

Group D

D

34%avg
MD1@ USAFDR 528%MD2vs TürkiyeFDR 436%MD3vs AustraliaFDR 440%

Panama

Group L

L

33%avg
MD1@ GhanaFDR 356%MD2vs CroatiaFDR 527%MD3vs EnglandFDR 516%

Qatar

Group B

B

33%avg
MD1vs SwitzerlandFDR 524%MD2@ CanadaFDR 435%MD3@ Bosnia and HerzegovinaFDR 439%

Congo DR

Group K

K

30%avg
MD1@ PortugalFDR 516%MD2vs ColombiaFDR 522%MD3vs UzbekistanFDR 353%

Tunisia

Group F

F

29%avg
MD1@ SwedenFDR 445%MD2@ JapanFDR 526%MD3@ NetherlandsFDR 517%

Uzbekistan

Group K

K

28%avg
MD1vs ColombiaFDR 521%MD2@ PortugalFDR 515%MD3@ Congo DRFDR 447%

Saudi Arabia

Group H

H

28%avg
MD1vs UruguayFDR 523%MD2vs SpainFDR 59%MD3vs Cabo VerdeFDR 351%

Ghana

Group L

L

27%avg
MD1vs PanamaFDR 444%MD2vs EnglandFDR 513%MD3vs CroatiaFDR 523%

Cabo Verde

Group H

H

27%avg
MD1@ SpainFDR 58%MD2@ UruguayFDR 522%MD3@ Saudi ArabiaFDR 349%

Iraq

Group I

I

23%avg
MD1vs NorwayFDR 438%MD2@ FranceFDR 59%MD3@ SenegalFDR 522%

Jordan

Group J

J

23%avg
MD1@ AustriaFDR 529%MD2@ AlgeriaFDR 532%MD3@ ArgentinaFDR 58%

Curaçao

Group E

E

21%avg
MD1@ GermanyFDR 512%MD2@ EcuadorFDR 523%MD3@ Côte d'IvoireFDR 529%

Haiti

Group C

C

16%avg
MD1vs ScotlandFDR 531%MD2vs BrazilFDR 59%MD3vs MoroccoFDR 59%

New Zealand

Group G

G

15%avg
MD1@ IR IranFDR 516%MD2vs EgyptFDR 521%MD3vs BelgiumFDR 59%
FDR 1 · Very easy
FDR 2 · Easy
FDR 3 · Medium
FDR 4 · Hard
FDR 5 · Very hard